BELTON - A jump of nearly 1.25 feet in the water level at Lake Belton during the last three weeks gives some indication of a temporary respite from the drought that has gripped Central Texas for two years.

Rain in the last week of December and heavy rains that fell the weekend of Jan. 13-15 are responsible for most of the increase.

Rain that fell in Belton and Temple that weekend averaged between 4.5 to 5.5 inches. Killeen had 2-3 inches while substantially more rain fell north of Temple.

The Climate Prediction Center, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, made a three-month forecast for January-March 2007. It predicts above-normal precipitation in North and Central Texas this winter thanks in part to the return of the El Nino weather system.

The center defines El Nino as a shift in the large scale ocean atmospheric patterns most easily recognized by warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, and weaker than normal easterly trade winds in the tropical Pacific.

Joe Harris, meteorologists for the National Weather Service in Fort Worth, said he agrees with that calculation based on computer models of global weather patterns he has studied.