According to David Chrisman, associate professor of history and political science at University of Mary-Hardin Baylor, the Republican Party could be headed for a transitional period, depending on which Democratic candidate ends up running against McCain.
“This election gives us the possibility of the Republican Party being in a true transitional period,” he said of the party, which he said has had a 25-year run of influence by the “Christian right.”
He said with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate, McCain could have a chance to win the presidency with less help from the right.
“If this plays out in McCain’s favor he might be able to pull it out without the true support of the Christian right,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if … McCain makes a hard push, if facing Obama, to the traditional Christian right. If he is facing Clinton, maybe we’ll not see that hard of a push.”
He said that kind of thinking could also play into his selection of a running mate.
Chrisman said McCain could bring in either Mike Huckabee or Fred Thompson to bolster his favor with the Christian right, but the choice of a running mate is often unpredictable.
Huckabee received 5,554 election day votes in Bell County, but dropped out of the race Tuesday night.
“It’s a bit of a head-scratcher in that he wants to secure a nomination before he announces who his running mate will be,” he said. “I would argue that because the Republicans are fairly worried about poll numbers and about Obama particularly, we will hear a lot of clambering over who his running mate will be.”
Nancy Boston, Bell County Republican Party chairwoman, said she expects Republican voters will ultimately support the best candidate in their eyes, no matter who the running mate is.
“People who really feel strongly about the (Republican) political party and the election process will come and support the candidate running on our ticket,” she said of the presidential candidate. “They might not get everything they want, but that’s what our forefathers did when they founded this nation - they compromised. You come together and vote for the person that more nearly fits your description of what a leader of a free country should be.”
Chrisman said a McCain candidacy would affect people locally regarding the war and immigration.
“Whoever is elected will be heavily in the war effort for at least the next two to three years,” he said. “I guess the difference would be on down the road, with McCain favoring a longer term effort.”
He said that although McCain can expect strong support from the military vote at Fort Hood, Obama might take some of those votes.
“I think a lot of the military will vote for McCain with his military background and knowledge,” he said. “But I think there will be some support from the military for Obama.”
Regarding immigration, Chrisman said neither President Bush nor McCain are taking a hard stance.
“He (McCain) has not toed the party line, as President Bush has not toed it,” he said. “It’s been interesting to see that he remains pretty strong in Texas despite his lack of a harsh stance on immigration policy.”
Chrisman said the key for McCain is whether he can keep his “moderate” stance if he gets into the White House.
“It will be interesting to see how much of the middle-of-the-road-politics that McCain is known for - how much of that stays intact,” he said. “You have to remember George Bush was very much a middle-of-the-road Republican moderate in Texas, and other than the immigration vote and a few others, he has not necessarily been able to keep that in Washington, D.C.”
