Addressing the economic future of Temple and Bell County, noted economist Mark Dotzour told a group of 250 real estate professionals and others to buckle their seat belts and hang on for another year. The road ahead should be smoother than what’s in the rearview mirror.

Dotzour said he expects the economy to turn around next spring, based on three factors: mortgage foreclosures should peak by then; the federal government should act to open the mortgage market; and political uncertainty (November presidential election) will be resolved.

“People are still wealthy, this country is still strong, but people are taking a wait-and-see attitude,” said Dotzour, regarding the business climate. “So far, we’ve been pretty immune from what’s going on at the national level. But we gotta be careful. We’re isolated from the national problems, but we aren’t immune from them.”

It didn’t take Dotzour long to zero in on Bell County.

“The local real estate market here has completely avoided what’s going on at the national level. I like the looks of what’s going on here because building is off a little. That’s good because we need less new homes built across the nation,” Dotzour said. “Bell County is responding correctly, in my opinion, to this situation by reducing the supply of new homes. That’s healthy for the local market.”

Dotzour said the average number of months for a house to remain on the market in Bell County is about right, although it is higher for March 2008 - 6.8 months - compared to March 2007 - 5.7 months.

“Somewhere around 6½ months worth of housing inventory is a balanced market, where prices should continue to appreciate, compared to the national level at about 10 months. That’s when prices drop.”

Although Bell County and Texas are faring better than the rest of the nation, Dotzour said the situation could change.

“Texas is leading the pack, and at the same time we have to keep our eye on the ball here because the rest of the country is struggling pretty dramatically and we’re not immune from all of those struggles,” he said.

Dotzour is the chief economist and director of research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University in College Station. CentraLand Title Company of Temple hosted the event, held at the Mayborn Civic and Convention Center Friday. Using a wry sense of humor, he kept the audience chuckling for an hour. At one point, he compared federal employees’ attempts to stimulate the economy to performing brain surgery with a chainsaw.

Temple attorney Thomas Baird said event organizers chose Dotzour because, “We need to hear both sides, good and bad. He tells you the way it is, not the way you want it.”

Dotzour demonstrated that straightforward approach when he addressed two highly charged issues in Bell County - the Trans-Texas Corridor and ethanol.

“We need a Texas corridor desperately. If we add 13 million more people to this state (projected by 2030) we better figure out a way to infrastructure it or we’re going to have nothing but a big slab of parking lot in our state and our economic growth won’t continue.”

Regarding ethanol subsidies by the federal government, Dotzour said with a food crisis in 33 countries, using corn for ethanol doesn’t make sense, ethically. Economically, he said making corn ethanol was “absolutely wrecking our economy.”

“You put a third of our corn crop in the gas tank and what happens? Corn goes up. Wheat goes up. Rice goes up. Oil goes up. The value of the dollar goes to nothing, and gasoline’s $3.50.”

After Dotzour finished, local attorney Baird echoed the economist’s outlook for the future: “There’s light at the end of the tunnel.”