History tends to repeat itself.
No. 3 UMHB (3-0, 2-0 Amer-ican Southwest Conference) and No. 11 HSU (4-0, 2-0) will collide at 2 p.m. today at Tiger Field in a rivalry showdown that will go a long way toward deciding the ASC champion.
The winner of this game has gone on to claim at least a share of the conference title every year since 1998 - a decade of battles that has featured a myriad of playmakers on both sides of the ball.
But for all of the flash and sky-high statistics this match-up has produced, it has always been decided on the ground.
UMHB has outrushed HSU 1,407 yards to 217 in the last five meetings - all Crusaders victories. The last time the Cowboys had the advantage on the ground was in the first of two clashes in 2004. That also is HSU’s only victory in the last eight showdowns.
“Mary Hardin-Baylor’s running game is extremely strong,” Cowboys coach Jimmie Keeling said. “When anybody can run the ball extremely well, it’s not much of a game.”
With preseason All-American tailback Quincy Daniels out indefinitely with a knee injury, the Crusaders mustered only 139 rushing yards - their lowest regular-season output in two years - in last week’s win over McMurry.
To beat the Cowboys, UMHB will need more production out of sophomore tailback Matt Hurst, who followed up his 186-yard performance against Texas Lutheran with just 52 yards in last week’s 46-0 win.
“Matt needs work. He’s not a proven commodity, yet,” said Crusaders coach Pete Fredenburg, whose program holds a 7-5 edge over HSU in the all-time series that includes two NCAA Division III playoff games. “He’s very talented and will be fine, but he needs a lot of work.”
Hurst will be looking for room against a Cowboys defense that is yielding 187 rushing yards per game.
Conversely, an HSU offense that runs for 141 a game will try to penetrate a UMHB defensive unit that is giving up just 55 per game on the ground.
“We always think it’s important to establish the run,” Keeling said. “We can’t always do it, but it makes life much easier.”
The Cowboys are most potent when the ball is in the hands of junior quarterback Justin Feaster, who’s ability to scramble and buy time with his feet has enabled him to pass for 1,170 yards and nine touchdowns.
“We have to control (Feaster),” Fredenburg said. “When the offense breaks down, that’s when he’s at his best. When he scrambles, we have to stay in coverage and contain him.”
Feaster has limited his mistakes, throwing just one interception in 142 attempts. That’s a concern for Fredenburg, whose team has only three takeaways compared to 11 for HSU.
“We had about six opportunities to take the ball away last week and didn’t do it,” Fredenburg said. “I think the takeaways will come because people are laying the ball on the ground. We just haven’t gotten on it yet.
“But we need to win the turnover battle this week. In a big ballgame like this, everything is magnified. Hanging on to the ball and maintaining drives are even bigger.”
Today’s game will be the earliest the teams have ever met in a season, and they’ve arrived at this point by different means.
HSU scored in the final few seconds to beat Wisconsin-LaCrosse, then held on late in wins over Linfield (Ore.), Louisiana College and Mississippi College - none of which were decided by more than eight points.
UMHB, on the other hand, has yet to be tested after rolling over Southern Nazarene (Okla.), TLU and McMurry by a combined score of 139-14.
The coaches couldn’t reach a consensus on whether or not the differing paths will factor into today’s tilt.
“I think our guys have met the challenge, and that says something about their persistence and endurance to make the plays at the end of a ballgame,” Keeling said. “That win against La Crosse was a great thing. We were down 21 points at one time, then scored with two seconds left to win. That made the plane ride home a whole lot better.
“But it would also be nice to be like Mary Hardin-Baylor and just roll over everybody.”
Fredenburg certainly won’t complain about the previous results but also knows the advantages of having been through battle-tested victories.
“They’ve had to bow their neck and come back to win, and that’s going to help them,” he said. “We haven’t had to do that, yet.”
NOTES: UMHB is riding a 23-game conference winning streak that dates to 2005. HSU holds the record of 34 straight ASC victories. . . . Today’s game marks the 10th time in their last 11 meetings that both teams are nationally ranked. . . . It will be the first day game for the Crusaders, who started the season with three consecutive 6 p.m. kickoffs.
edrennan@temple-telegram.com
