Israel’s leadership insists that the punishing assault against Gaza’s Hamas rulers is motivated purely by security considerations. Some experts said launching the assault now was unavoidable, in order to restore Israel’s power of deterrence and halt a steady weapons buildup by an Iranian-backed foe on Israel’s doorstep.
They note that Hamas’ decision not to renew a truce beyond Dec. 19 forced Israel’s hand.
Israel’s deadliest-ever offensive on Palestinian soil does come at a time when it’s likely to cause minimum friction with the White House. President George W. Bush is in his final month in office.
Some Washington analysts say Israel may have timed the airstrikes, in part, to prevent the situation in Gaza from becoming President-elect Barack Obama’s first major foreign policy crisis when he takes office Jan. 20. Yet the offensive could also undermine any short-term initiative the incoming administration might try.
In Israel, a successful outcome would certainly boost the electoral prospects of Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who are competing for the job of prime minister against hard-line opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been calling for tough action against militants and Iran, which is Hamas’ patron.
However, Barak and Livni could get hurt politically if the offensive fails to achieve its objective.
“If by the end of the operation, the general sentiment is that Israel has once again failed to meet its goals, if rockets continue to land ... the public will turn its anger at Barak and Livni, and power will drop like a ripe fruit into Netanyahu’s lap,” the Haaretz daily wrote in an editorial.
