When seasonal fans sprout up everywhere and root for players whose names they can’t pronounce and schools they’ve never heard of (Siena, American, who the heck is Robert Morris?).
And the sports junkie who is sick to his stomach after losing money in his office pool to someone who only picks Villanova because it reminds them of vanilla ice cream.
Whichever fan you are, there’s really a simple science in figuring out who’ll be cutting down the nets on April 6 in Detroit.
Using process of elimination, let’s cross off the teams one by one that won’t win the title.
Start with all the 13, 14, 15 and 16 seeds. While they symbolize the ultimate Cinderella, they’ve never advanced past the Sweet 16.
No team that lost its first game in its conference tournament has gone on to become champion. Bye bye California, Clemson, Connecticut, Kansas, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, Wake Forest and Wisconsin.
Of the 70 championship teams in history, only five whose main campus resides in the capitol city have won. That spells doom for Louisiana State, Ohio State, Texas and Utah.
No directional school that isn’t the actual name of the state has ever won. See ya Northern Iowa, Southern California and Western Kentucky.
Bird mascots don’t have much luck. The Oregon Ducks won the inaugural title in 1939, Kansas with a Jayhawk (it’s really a mythical bird) has won three times, and the Louisville Cardinals have won twice, but not since 1986. Good riddance Louisville Cardinals, Temple Owls, Boston College Eagles and Marquette (which won in 1977 as the Warriors) Golden Eagles.
Only seven schools whose name consists of two syllables have won. Adios Butler, Dayton, Memphis, Purdue and Xavier.
Teams whose mascots are currently Native American or who end in -eer never go all the way (Stanford was the Indians when they won in 1942 before switching to the Cardinal). Sayonara Florida State Seminoles, Illinois Fighting Illini, Tennessee Volunteers and West Virginia Mountaineers.
Whew, we’re down to 19.
Since UCLA icon John Wooden retired in 1975 after his Bruins won a ridiculous 10 times in 12 years, there have been only six champions located west of the Mississippi River. Eliminated are Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Gonzaga, Minnesota (actually the Golden Gophers' gym is a few blocks east of the Mississippi but that‘s close enough for me), Missouri, Oklahoma State, UCLA, Utah State and Washington.
No teams seeded ninth or worse have won. Count out Maryland, Michigan, Siena, and Virginia Commonwealth.
That leaves Duke, Syracuse, Villanova, Michigan State and North Carolina.
No team that features a color as their mascot has ever won the title (Syracuse was the Orangemen in 2003 and Stanford wasn't the Cardinal yet in 1942). Going, going, gone are the Syracuse Orange.
Duke only wins national championships in -apolis cities (Minneapolis twice and Indianapolis). North Carolina only wins in two word cities (Kansas City, New Orleans twice and St. Louis). Sorry Duke and North Carolina.
So the national championship comes down to Villanova and Michigan State. To determine the victor, you must only look at what happens the year after Kansas wins the national championship.
In 1953, the defending champion Jayhawks, whose primary school color is blue, lost to Big Ten school Indiana, 69-68. In 1989, Big Ten school Michigan beat Seton Hall, whose primary color is blue, 80-79 in overtime.
That brings us to our solution. The Michigan State Spartans of the Big Ten Conference will beat the blue-colored Villanova Wildcats by one point in double overtime.
See, told you it was simple.
cmeister@temple-telegram.com
