If one sign of the recession’s end is more people working, an internationally respected economic forecaster says the bad times will be over for the Temple area in about a year and a half.

For Austin, San Antonio and El Paso, the good times will start to roll this year, according to the report from IHS Global Insight.

Only six metro areas in the nation are expected to begin recovering this year. Most won’t until 2012, IHS says.

The key metric used by IHS Global Insight is unemployment. When the rate returns to the lows before the recession, recovery is on its way, the company says.

Temple business-watchers have said since the middle of last year that the MSA is not suffering the same level of economic hardship being felt on the coasts and in the Rust Belt.

Jeff Coffman of Raymond James in Temple said the variable that makes Bell County different is Fort Hood and related activities.

“It doesn’t matter what’s going on in the business world, those guys have money,” he said.

Because of Fort Hood and other factors, Coffman agreed with the IHS prediction that the dip won’t last as long here.

“I think we’ve weathered the storm here,” he said.

Ken Higdon, president and CEO of the Temple Chamber of Commerce, said the jobs-creation outlook is good for the area for the next six months. He cited ground-breaking for a H-E-B distribution center, a Gulf States Toyota facility, a Northland Products lubrications plant and a power plant, all scheduled either before or after the new year, as reasons for optimism on employment opportunities.