Forecasters are predicting El Nino rains will be making their first big splash in November and continue to soak Texas through April 2010.
The state climatologist forecasts that because an El Nino event is normally associated with above-normal precipitation across central and southern Texas, “it is likely but not guaranteed that the drought will become less severe during the upcoming fall and winter.”
El Nino, “Little Boy” in Spanish, is defined as a weak, warm current surfacing in the Pacific Ocean that may result in severe weather conditions and increased rainfall in North America. Climate tracking agencies have identified an El Nino appearance this fall, replacing La Nina, “Little Girl,” weather phenomenon, which yields opposite weather events from El Nino.
During this round of La Nina weather, normally desert-like West Texas was greener than regions of the state that typically receive more moisture, Texas AgriLife Extension officials reported.
Ag producers are “tired of waiting” on a rain maker, said Dirk Aaron, Texas AgriLife Extension agent for Bell County.
“Most are in a crisis mode. A drought-breaking event is not going to solve their problems for this year because problems are many-fold: too low yields, too high expenses. Their problems are much more complex than getting a rain. They are suffering financially. Some are struggling to keep their farms in place,” Aaron said.
Cow-calf operators are bailing corn and grain sorghum stalks for cow fodder, Aaron said. Some cattle producers have lost livestock from nitrate poisoning from dried out fields of forage that sprouted after a rare rain event. The Bell County extension office is offering cattle producers a free screening for nitrates starting Monday.
A winter and spring drenching would provide ag producers the boost needed to regroup and prepare for new crops in 2010, Aaron said. However, with overgrazing and poor pasture management, the effects of the 2008-09 drought will be long term, he said.
El Nino rains can expect a red carpet welcome in Milam County, Jon Gersbach, Texas AgriLife Extension agent, said.
“We hope (El Nino) shows up early. We need him now. November is not going to come soon enough.”
Ranchers have been feeding hay since last summer without a break, Gersbach said.
If El Nino rains arrive in November, small grains producers will be getting a break. Last year’s wheat and oats crops received no rain, and seeds are still in the ground. On the El Nino wish list is a slow, steady rain that continues for days to saturate parched soil, replenish aquifers and provide enough runoff to fill dried out stock ponds, Gersbach said.
“Rain is going to be beneficial to everybody, even homeowners, giving those trees something to drink,” Gersbach said.
El Nino typically has its strongest effects during the winter, says John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas state climatologist and professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University.
“The predictions of tropical storm and hurricane activity are all fairly low this year, despite warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “It is likely that El Nino will increase the wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and help suppress tropical cyclone development. This makes it slightly less likely than normal that a hurricane will make landfall in Texas.”
El Nino trackers do not know if “we’ll see any extreme weather as a result of El Nino,” Nielsen-Gammon said.
Texas A&M University ag specialists are taking the conservative approach in long-term predictions on the effects an El Nino-induced rain would have on the prolonged dry spell that has produced in excess of $3.6 billion in direct losses to Texas’ food and fabric producers.
Whether El Nino will be the drought breaker Texas needs is the $64,000 question, says Dr. Travis Miller, Texas A&M University professor and extension program leader and associate head for soil and crop sciences.
La Nina gave West Texas and the north plains a green landscape during the drought, while producing weather conditions that turned off the water in about 80 central, east and south central Texas Gulf Coast regions, causing extreme or exceptional drought conditions, Miller said.
“When I look at precipitation probabilities, it appears that on the fairly near-term horizon, there appears to be a slightly elevated chance for above-normal precipitation,” Smith said. “As much of the Central Texas region is in extreme or exceptional drought. It would take significantly more than normal precipitation to bring the region out of drought.”
Smith is too cautious in accepting predictions “to say we will be out of drought in the near-term future, but hopefully the conditions will improve.”
The meteorological drought assessment report compiled by Nielsen-Gammon and Brent McRoberts, research associate for the university’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences, declares the 2008-09 drought in some areas Central Texas, including Milam County, to be “probably the most severe drought on record from precipitation, compared to historical droughts in the 20th and 21st centuries. The 1956 drought was of longer duration, but its intensity was not as extreme, producing different impacts,” the report stated.
In neighboring areas of central and south central Texas, the intensity of the 2009 drought is greater than that of most, but not all, of the major historical droughts of the past 110 years, including 1910, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1953, 1955, 1956 and 1971, the report stated.
This is probably the most severe drought on record from a precipitation standpoint alone in Bastrop, Caldwell and Lee counties, the state climatologist report stated.
When the impact of high temperatures is included, the drought is probably the most severe on record for an additional six counties: Victoria, Bee, San Patricio, Live Oak, Jim Wells and Duval counties.
In neighboring areas of central and south central Texas, the intensity of the 2009 drought is greater than most, but not all of the major historical droughts of the past 110 years, including 1910, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1953, 1955, 1956 and 1971.
The most extreme precipitation deficits are found in Bastrop, Caldwell, Guadalupe, Lee, Milam and Williamson counties in Central Texas, where the two-year rainfall deficits are probably record-breaking.
Unless they receive significant rain in the next week or two, dryland cotton in the Rolling Plains may not make a crop. But by far, conditions are most dire in counties south of U.S. Interstate Highway 10, Texas AgriLife Extension reported.
In Central Texas, the extension service reported that pastures have greened up because of some rain, but stock water tanks remain low and summer temperatures quickly dried out topsoils. Producers, who put out a second application of fertilizer before the rains, expected to take another hay cutting soon. Hay was in short supply because of high demand. Producers were still supplying livestock with supplemental feed. Crops yields were low.
Lack of rain and triple-digit temperatures have blistered row crops and pastures in parts of Texas, causing predictions that losses could surpass $4.1 billion by year-end, the extension reported. Also suffering is vegetable production, horticulture, peaches, pecans and other crops, and land-based recreation.
As of Aug. 11, the Texas Forest Service reported that burn bans remained in effect in 132 of Texas’ 254 counties. Late July and early August rains “did green up” many areas, but most already need rain or will soon need more rain, the report stated.
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting indications that “the drought may begin to loosen its grip on some areas going into autumn.”
