BELTON - In another day or two, Mary Hardin-Baylor will have a slightly better idea of what it's chances are for making the NCAA Division III football playoffs.

The key word, though, is slightly. History has proven that come selection day, sure things are anything but.

"The reality is that it's a crapshoot at best," UMHB coach Pete Fredenburg said Monday about the playoff selection process. "I'm concerned, obviously, and will be until the bitter end."

The first hint about the Crusaders' postseason fate will come Wednesday or Thursday, when the NCAA releases its first set of regional rankings.

The 32-team playoff bracket is comprised of 23 automatic bids (Pool A) reserved for conference champions, three spots (Pool B) for league champions of non-automatic bid conferences and six at-large berths (Pool C).

Because of its loss to Mississippi College two weeks ago - and excluding an unlikely collapse by the Choctaws - No. 12-ranked UMHB (6-1, 4-1 American Southwest Conference) is left to hope it can garner one of the six at-large bids.

That's where the regional rankings come into play.

Each of the four geographical regions has an eight-member committee that ranks its teams throughout the last four weeks of the regular season. The final set of rankings is passed on to the national selection committee for use as an advisory tool.

Theoretically, once the 23 Pool A and three Pool B bids have been determined, the highest regionally ranked teams remaining receive the six Pool C berths.

The catch is that the national committee isn't bound by the regional rankings.

"I know when I was on the regional committee, we would place someone that we thought was a better team ahead of a team that might have a better won-loss record," Fredenburg explained. "The head of the committee would say, 'Now help me justify this because I'm going to have to justify it to the national committee.' And sometimes, those teams would get flipped."

When the South Region rankings come out this week, it's likely that Wesley (Del.), Washington & Jefferson (Pa.) and MC will hold the top three spots in some order because of their unbeaten in-region records.

The Crusaders are hoping they're listed at No. 4.

"Just the way that it's going to unfold, I would imagine that it's going to be Wesley, W&J and Mississippi College. Then I think we should be right around there," Fredenburg said. "Hopefully we'll be in fourth and poised for a Pool C bid."