El Niño, or The Little Boy, the atmospheric warming of central Pacific Ocean waters that spawns rain-rich storm clouds, is on target for an appearance this fall and winter as the much-anticipated droughtbreaker for a dry, dusty Texas, John W. Neilsen-Gammon, Texas climatologist, said.
The cooler counterpart of the El Niño weather phenomenon, La Niña - whose atmospheric impishness yields the opposite effect - was the culprit behind one of Texas’ driest winters, Neilsen-Gammon said.
“It is a fact that La Niña will diminish as we get into the warm part of the year,” he said.
El Niño and La Niña can occur any time of the year, lasting from several months to a year and a half, but its effect on Texas weather mainly occurs in the winter, Neilson-Gammon said.
Though not an ideal weather situation for livestock producers who saw stock ponds turn into dust bowls during the past nine months, the dry winter did not stress domestic water use as it would have during the summer. Agriculture will take a calamitous beating if Texas does not get rain steadily in late spring and early summer, Neilsen-Gammon said.
Without seasonable rain events - not several days of floods followed by no rain, but regular showers- Texas can brace for the worst because drought tends to perpetuate itself, he said.
“We are essentially walking a tightrope because any extended period of dry weather could be disastrous, more so than in a normal year because there is not the reservoir of moisture in the soil for plants to thrive on,” Neilsen-Gammon said.
The first three months of the year are the most difficult to predict the weather, because atmospheric scientists cannot get a clear understanding of El Niño and La Niña, which are primary drivers for longtime weather patterns, Neilson-Gammon said.
Most ocean models are predicting a switch to El Niño conditions, meaning a chance of wetter than normal conditions next fall and winter. The period between spring and summer is basically a blank slate at this point, as far as weather predictions, Neilsen-Gammon said.
Texas, defined by some agriculturists as a state of perpetual drought interrupted by intermittent floods, remains vulnerable to rain shortage even outside a designated drought, Neilson-Gammon said. Based on data the state has recorded since 1985, Texas’ 2008 drought is the second driest on record, following behind 1918, Neilsen-Gammon said.
”We are vulnerable any time of the year, but it only takes a few months of dry weather before the farmers and feeling it and livestock is feeling it,” he said
Dr. Travis D. Miller, Texas AgriLife Extension leader, associate head for soil and crop sciences and Texas A&M University professor, said estimates on drought damages to agriculture are being calculated at this time.
“We do not have a good handle on drought impact on agriculture to date,” Miller said. “Certainly that impact is large and far-reaching.”
The drought is taking a tremendous toll on area agriculture producers, said Jon Gersbach, Texas AgriLife Extension agent for Milam County.
“Grain wheat and small grains for grazing are, at best, surviving. The majority is failing and will yield marginally at best,” Gersbach said. Row crops, such as corn, are being dry planted with the hope for rain. Grain sorghum and cotton will be sowed later.
The dry La Niña winter has produced a dependency on supplemental feeding for livestock, because grazing meadows did not get enough moisture in the fall and winter to grow grass, Gersbach said.
“Herds are being thinned; some are being liquidated due to lack of feedstuffs,” Gersbach said.
Stock ponds are drying or low and are not providing sufficient water. Protein deficiencies are becoming an issue. Soil-borne diseases such as blackleg are a primary concern when grasses are being grazed very close.
Gersbach advised livestock producers to survey their herds and cull cows that are not productive, or are beyond their highest productivity period, as in older than 7 years old. Producers stocked to 75 percent or less of capacity are in better shape to deal with the drought, Gersbach said.
Supplemental watering is a must for turf grass where deep infrequent watering is the recommendation. Newly planted trees need supplemental water, as do ornamentals and vegetable gardens, Gersbach said.
Meanwhile, Gov. Rick Perry has asked the U.S. Department of Agriculture to provide disaster relief assistance for Texas farms and ranches that have suffered economic and physical losses as a result of severe drought conditions.
If Perry’s statewide request is approved, qualified farm operators in all Texas counties will be eligible for low-interest emergency loans from the USDA. The agency offers additional programs, such as technical assistance, to eligible farmers
